What the Christmas Table Really Tells Us About the Isthmian Premier League

What the Christmas Table Really Tells Us About the Isthmian Premier League

Many football supporters use Christmas as the first real marker for judging how their season is unfolding. Often close to the halfway point, the festive period arrives after the optimism of August has faded and reality has set in. League tables begin to feel less theoretical and more instructive, and fans scan the standings not just out of curiosity, but in search of clues about where their campaign might truly be heading. The question, however, remains whether Christmas is genuinely a reliable indicator of how a season will end.

The Isthmian Premier League has long carried a reputation as one of the most unpredictable divisions in the non-league system. It is a division shaped by shocks, overperforming and underperforming sides, dramatic swings in form, and post-Christmas upheaval that can leave the final table looking very different from what December appeared to suggest.

This article looks back at the last ten completed Isthmian Premier League seasons, from 2013/14 through to 2024/25, excluding the curtailed 2019/20 and 2020/21 campaigns, to assess how much the Christmas Day table actually tells us. By tracking where champions, playoff sides and relegated teams stood on 25th December and comparing that with where they eventually finished, it highlights both recurring patterns and persistent uncertainty. Some races begin to crystallise early while others remain fluid well into the spring. 

The findings offer a useful reminder of what the festive table can, and cannot, reveal about the long road that still lies ahead, and why even seemingly comfortable positions at Christmas rarely guarantee a smooth finish.

Champions: Christmas Contenders and the Shape of the Title Race

While Christmas does not always crown the champion, the table rarely lies when it comes to identifying genuine contenders. In all but one of the last ten completed seasons, every title winner sat inside the top four by Christmas, with only Horsham in 2024/25 breaking that pattern in remarkable fashion.

Four champions during this period were already top of the table at Christmas. Wealdstone (2013/14), Billericay Town (2017/18), Worthing (2021/22) and Hornchurch (2023/24) all led the division on 25th December and went on to finish the job. In each case, the festive standings proved a reliable indicator that the title race was beginning to settle into shape.

More commonly, champions were positioned close enough to strike without leading outright. Maidstone United (2014/15), Hampton & Richmond Borough (2015/16) and Bishop’s Stortford (2022/23) were all second at Christmas before climbing to the summit by season’s end. Havant & Waterlooville went one place further back in 2016/17, sitting third in December before sealing the title on the final day of the campaign.

The furthest typical leap came in 2018/19, when Dorking Wanderers were fourth at Christmas and still finished as champions. Even then, the movement required was relatively modest, as they were firmly embedded in the promotion picture rather than emerging from nowhere.

Last season, however, produced a genuine anomaly. Horsham surged from ninth at Christmas, climbing eight places to take the title on the final day by a single goal. Remarkably, they did not lead the division at any point until midway through the first half of the final game of the season.

Late surges can happen, but history suggests they are the exception rather than the rule. A team jumping from outside the playoff places at Christmas to winning the league remains rare. Taken together, the evidence points to Christmas as a highly predictive marker at the very top end of the table, as title winners almost always announce themselves early, even if they do not seize first place immediately.

For supporters scanning the table over the festive period, that distinction matters. While the summit may shift, the eventual champions are usually already well within view, even in one of the country’s most unpredictable divisions.

Playoffs: Where Christmas Positioning Means Less

If the title race tends to reveal itself early, the playoff picture is far less settled. Across the last ten completed seasons, Christmas positions offer only a loose guide as to who will still be standing in the top five come late April.

At one end of the spectrum are seasons where the table barely shifted at all. One such example was 2023/24, which produced an almost frozen top four, as Chatham Town, Enfield Town and Wingate & Finchley all finished in the same positions they occupied at Christmas.

More often, however, the data shows that Christmas top fives are far more provisional than predictive. Across the ten seasons studied, several sides led the league at Christmas only to slide into the playoff places by the end of the campaign.

Margate (2014/15), Dulwich Hamlet (2015/16), Haringey Borough (2018/19), Hornchurch (2022/23) and Dover Athletic (2024/25) were all top on Christmas Day before settling for playoff spots, with Dover only sneaking back into the top five on the final day. Christmas leaders frequently remain involved, but the evidence shows just how much can still change in the second half of the season.

Of the 40 teams that eventually finished in the top five across the ten seasons, 27 were already there at Christmas. Four sides climbed from sixth, one from seventh, two from eighth and two from ninth. These are strong New Year runs, but they are far from unheard of, as it is common for teams to find momentum after the turn of the year.

There are, however, notable outliers. East Thurrock United produced an exceptional recovery in 2015/16, rising from tenth at Christmas to finish third, but the outer limits of what is possible are underlined by two even more extraordinary surges up the table. Carshalton Athletic sat 13th on Christmas Day in 2018 before finishing second following a dramatic upturn in form. Even that was surpassed by Wingate & Finchley in 2016/17, who climbed from 18th at Christmas to fifth, a 13 place swing that remains unmatched across the sample.

It is a reminder that the playoff door can remain ajar deep into the winter for sides seemingly buried in mid-table or even hovering just above the relegation zone. What the data ultimately suggests is that the playoff race stays open far longer than the title race. While champions almost always emerge from the Christmas top four, playoff teams routinely come from seventh, eighth or even lower.

For clubs hovering just outside the top five at Christmas, history offers genuine encouragement, but for those already inside it, the warning is equally clear, as being there in December means little if momentum is lost after the holiday season.

Relegation: When the Table Starts to Tell the Truth

If the playoff race remains open well into the spring, the relegation picture tells a far harsher story. Across the last ten completed seasons, 23 of the 36 relegated sides were already in the drop zone at Christmas and failed to find a way out. In most cases, the festive table proved to be an uncomfortably accurate forecast of what was to come.

In the majority of seasons, relegated clubs were already occupying the bottom places by December. Cray Wanderers (2013/14), Bury Town (2014/15), Grays Athletic (2016/17) and Brightlingsea Regent (2022/23) were all rooted to the foot of the table at Christmas and finished there come April. In those campaigns, the league standings offered no false hope. Once a side had sunk that low by mid-season, escape was never realistically on the cards.

Where the data becomes more revealing is with teams who still appeared relatively safe when the festive fixtures arrived. Peacehaven & Telscombe sat 14th in December 2014 but endured a prolonged collapse that saw them slide to 21st and relegation. AFC Sudbury followed a similar path in 2016/17, occupying the same mid-table position at Christmas before falling nine places into the bottom four.

The most dramatic downturn came in 2015/16, when Burgess Hill Town were as high as ninth at Christmas yet finished the season in the relegation places after winning just one league match post-Christmas. It represents the sharpest decline anywhere in the sample.

Those dramatic falls, however, remain the exception rather than the rule. More commonly, relegated teams were already hovering uncomfortably close to the line by December. Merstham in 2021/22 and Hendon in 2024/25 were both outside the relegation places at Christmas, but only just. In each case, a poor second half of the season was enough to drag them below the line, proving how thin the margin for error already was.

The overall pattern here is clear. Unlike the playoff race, relegation battles in the Isthmian Premier League tend to harden early, as by Christmas, the danger zone is usually well defined and genuine recoveries are rare. For clubs glancing nervously over their shoulders in December, history offers little reassurance, as once the drop zone comes into view, it is extremely difficult to escape it.

What Christmas Reveals, and What It Does Not

Taken as a whole, the Christmas table in the Isthmian Premier League is neither a definitive verdict nor an empty snapshot. At the very top of the division, it is often a strong indicator, with champions almost always drawn from those already firmly in contention by December. At the bottom, it is frequently unforgiving, with relegation battles tending to solidify long before spring arrives.

Between those two extremes lies the chaos of the playoff race, where positions remain far more volatile and late momentum can still reshape the landscape. It is here that hope and danger coexist longest, and where the festive standings offer the least certainty.

For supporters, players and clubs alike, Christmas represents a point of clarity rather than closure. The table may not decide a season, but history suggests it rarely lies. In a division defined by fine margins and dramatic swings, what is visible at Christmas usually matters, even if it does not yet tell the whole story.